WA Election Quants

Generally voters return the government if they think that their country or state is heading in the right direction. 

Direction

Total

Strongly agree

26%

Agree

40%

Neither agree nor disagree

8%

Disagree

14%

Strongly disagree

11%

Unsure

2%

Grand Total

100%

Total agree

66%

Total disagree

25%

Net agree

42%

 So on that basis, Barnett had little to worry about. Only 25% disapprove of the direction in which he and the Liberals are taking WA.

Barnett is also personally popular. 

Barnett_Approve

Total

Strongly approve

25%

Approve

31%

Neither approve nor disapprove

12%

Disapprove

17%

Strongly disapprove

15%

Grand Total

100%

Total approve

55%

Total disapprove

32%

Net approve

23%

 Although his opponent tracks pretty well for an opposition leader. 

McGowan_Approve

Total

Strongly approve

8%

Approve

36%

Neither approve nor disapprove

25%

Disapprove

16%

Strongly disapprove

11%

No opinion

5%

Grand Total

100%

Total approve

44%

Total disapprove

27%

Net approve

17%

 Only 27% disapprove of him, which is less than for Barnett. Where Barnett's approval rating is superior is that fewer people are neutral on him (12% versus 25% for McGowan) and those numbers are in his approvals.

The result of this election was never really at issue, as can be seen from expectations. 

Expectation

Total

Coalition

78%

Labor

6%

Neither (Hung Parliament)

11%

Unsure

5%

Grand Total

100%

 Interesting that more people expected a hung parliament than a Labor victory, which was only rated at 6%. Given this very low Labor vote there was potentially room for a swing back, just to check Barnett's momentum. That this didn't happen suggests that as an opposition Labor hadn't even met minimum expectations.

There was also a strong desire for the Liberals to win, and only around a third of voters wanted a Labor win. 

Desire

Total

Coalition

54%

Labor

35%

Neither (Hung Parliament)

9%

Unsure

2%

Grand Total

100%

 All in all, the profile of a certain thing, when it came to the Liberal win.

 

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