New South Wales 2015: quants

The New South Wales election result looks like it will be much different from the Queensland one. This may be partly because voters have seen in Queensland that governments can lose large majorities in just one term.

The quants suggest that the election campaign boils down to the proposition that you can stick with a government that you know, with a premier you like, that is doing a job you approve of running the state. Or you can take on a government with a bad recent track record, with a leader you're not sure about, who you are less enthusiastic about than the government. And the reason you might have for doing this is that the government has one policy you're not happy about, but which is poised to deliver some substantial infrastructure.

It seems that voters are likely to stick with the friendly premier they know and forgive him his policy of selling electricity assets.

I've analysed the tables below.

Most voters seem to be happy with the direction of the state.

Direction 15 03 23

Most voters also seem to be happy with the Premier Mike Baird.

Baird 15 03 23

And believe his government has done enough to be re-elected.

Baird re-elect 15 03 23

Foley is in a very weak position. While just about everyone knows who he is, 36% don't have a strong opinion one way or the other of him, and approval from his own supporters is relatively low at 63%. The same figure for Mike Baird amongst Liberal supporters is 97%.

Foley 15 03 23

And most people don't think the Opposition deserves to be the government.

Foley Gov 15 03 23

It is not surprising to see that Mike Baird is the preferred premier by a significant margin, although there is still a large percentage undecided.

Preferred Premier 15 03 23

Expectations are for a large coalition win.

Expectations 15 03 23

But voters are not so clear cut about who they want to win with just fewer than 50% picking the Coalition.

Desire 15 03 23

Privatisation is a negative for the government.

Privatisation Government 15 03 23

And a positive for the opposition.

Privatisation Opposition 15 03 23

But ultimately the election isn't being fought on the privatisation, but on who electors want as the government. The ALP has allowed itself to be put in a situation where Foley is running head-to-head against Baird, a personality contest which he will lose, and they are campaigning for government when electors think they need at least another term in opposition before they are ready for government again. This dissipates privatisation as an issue.

Another Term 15 03 23

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0 #1 MateALEX GARTLAN 2015-03-24 13:16
Hi, as usual, and though we are on different sides of the political spectrum, I thank you for your hard work. I agree that it does not yet look good for Labor. You stand with Morgan and Neilsen for reliability and honesty. Thanks, Alex.