The slow burning social upheaval powering One Nation

Tuesday, 31 March 2026 18:57 | Written by Graham Young

After our last poll we realised we lacked a mechanism that could explain the remarkable rise of One Nation on the one hand and the decline of the Coalition on the other.

One Nation is now the most intriguing phenomenon in Australian politics. Thirty years after Pauline Hanson first entered federal parliament, her political creation is reaching heights few foresaw. Nothing in its history - not even the 1998 Queensland breakthrough - foreshadowed a national vote now in the mid-twenties, extending deep into Victoria and South Australia.

At the same time, the Liberal Party has imploded, not just federally but in every mainland state bar Queensland. As our polling shows, the Liberal Party’s loss has been One Nation’s gain, with around half of traditional Coalition voters now saying they would vote for One Nation if an election were held next weekend.

While Labor’s vote federally is fragile, its state brands are mostly strong, so whatever is going on is something only on the right of politics, and it is more fundamental than anything that has happened for at least the last 80 years.

Immigration can explain part of this rise, based on precedents in the USA, UK and Europe, but it does not explain the collapse of the state Liberal parties. Something else was missing.

Our hypothesis in conducting this follow-up poll was that COVID-19 was that missing element. Whether one agreed with the measures or not, they represented the greatest curtailment of Australians’ liberties outside wartime. Many respondents now also believe governments misled them.

What the research reveals is that COVID was indeed an emotional break that led a clear majority of defecting Coalition voters to feel betrayed by their party.

To read the full report click here.

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