Budget 2011 - the quants

Sunday, 22 May 2011 19:31 | Written by Graham Young

Wayne Swan's budget failed to excite respondents, and it was delivered against a background of fragile public confidence in the direction in which the country is heading.

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Of course direction isn't just measured by respondents' views of the economy, and it can be comprised of respondents pulling in different directions. For example climate change, while a diminishing concern, is still significant. Those who think the government has done too much to address it, and those who think the government has done too little, may both say that the country is heading in the wrong direction.

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I call the budget a pass conceded because while it doesn't have a majority supporting it, neither does it have a majority opposing it. Both approval and disapproval are well short of 50%, and "approve" and "disapprove" are both smaller than "strongly approve" and "strongly disapprove". So a lukewarm response at best.

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Perceptions of a policy announcement like this cannot be seen in isolation. The relative standings of the parties and their leaders are going to play a part in how it is received. In this respect Julie Gillard has a perception problem.

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Tony Abbott has an approval problem too. Both he an Julia hover around 50% disapproval. He tracks slightly better than her because he has a higher approval score.

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For politicians the critical question is always "Has my vote improved?" In this case the budget appears to have made it worse for Gillard.

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At the same time it has had a neutral effect on Abbott's electability.

For the technically minded the sample size was 635 and it was weighted for voting intention. Experience says that the results are likely to be similar to a properly randomised telephone survey, although our respondents tend to be more definite in their views. That is because they have thought more deeply about the issues than a randomly selected sample would have, which is the beauty of our sample - they come to conclusions that it takes the general population longer to reach because our respondents are more engaged.

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