Queensland figures confirmed

Our survey, taken just after the event, showed similar results, and while we don't primarily do these surveys for quant results, I've learned that as long as you're careful they can give very strong pointers to what is happening.

Newspoll shows Labor on 60% of the two-party preferred vote, as does our sample, but there are interesting and important divergences, where I am happy to cede the ground to Newspoll in terms of absolute accuracy. But our readers didn't need to wait for two months to get a very good idea of what is happening. And because of our qualitative methodology we have insights into motivation that just isn't there in Newspoll.

I've shown Newspoll and our results side-by-side below.

Newspoll_v_WTPW_First_Pref_11_05_20

The overstatement of the Greens vote has little effect on the balance between Labor and LNP.

Newspoll_v_WTPW_Bligh_Approval_11_05_20

Newspoll measure their approvals slight differently from us. We have a neutral position of "Neither satisified nor dissatisfied" as well as an "Unsure" position. The difference between these two is that between indifference and uncertainty, and they probably do sum to "Uncommitted" but I'm not prepared to make that assumption. In any event, the results are again fairly close to Newspoll's.

Newspoll_v_WTPW_Newman_Approval_11_05_20

While the positive figure for Newman is a little higher in our survey than Newspoll's, so is the negative figure with the net result being fairly similar.

This is a striking demonstration of the power of our methodology.

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