Budget bad for Libs, great for Greens, not so good for Labor

FPI 14 05 15 ThumbOur First Preference Index - a measure of how voting intention moves in our unweighted sample - shows the Greens being big winners from the budget.

 The index is zero-based in September 2010 at a time, just after the election of the Gillard government, when the two-party preferred vote was 50/50 according to Newspoll.

The Coaltion was on 41% of the vote, Labor on 34% and the Greens on 14%.

If our sample was accurately tracking votes in the community, then that would make the relative votes, 47%, 28% and 18%. Instead Newspoll shows them to be 36%, 38% and 11%.

As our polls are opt-in, we capture propensity of the supporters of various parties to get involved in argument. So what our First Preference Index suggests is that Liberals are more motivated than they were four years ago, and Labor voters less so. Greens are getting their enthusiasm back, and there does appear to be some substitution of Greens voting intention for Labor voting intention.

It's likely that the Greens vote will improve, now that they are no longer part of the decision making process with the party in power. They certainly have a stronger toe-hold in the online world, than the electorate at large.

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Comments   

 
0 #1 Next election countsPhilip Machanick 2014-06-10 16:52
Greens often do well between elections in polls, but lose out to high-pressure big-money campaigning the other parties can afford. The WA senate by-election was a possible game changer though: it was a big enough election that a state-wide organization was needed, and Scott Ludlam did exceptionally well with a swing of nearly 7%.

Roy Morgan agrees with Newspoll for a change (35, 38, 11%): roymorgan.com/.../...

On the other hand, mood-swing elections where a lot of voters are fed up with the government can drive votes back to the big parties.

What is most remarkable about the Abbott government is how fast their lead in the polls evaporated: roymorgan.com/.../...

So the only poll that really counts is the next election.