'; ?> Election 2025: a sliding doors moment—but not how Peter Dutton imgained it | What The People Want
Election 2025: a sliding doors moment—but not how Peter Dutton imgained it
Wednesday, 21 May 2025 11:16 | Written by Graham Young

 Peter Dutton called the 2025 election a “sliding doors moment”—and it was, though perhaps not as he intended. Our polling suggests the result was more a collapse in Coalition support than a surge to Labor.

To read our analysis, click here.

Early in the campaign, neither side inspired much enthusiasm, but by the end voters had decisively rejected Dutton. His approval fell 23 points, and belief that the Coalition deserved to govern dropped just as far. Labor, meanwhile, gained modestly, with Albanese’s net approval improving 14 points and preferred PM status rising to 57%.

The issues that mattered most—particularly housing—were underplayed by both major parties, even though our data showed it was the dominant concern for voters under 60. Dutton failed to capitalise on this, or to project strength and clarity on cost-of-living issues. Instead, he became most associated with nuclear energy—a topic that drew more skepticism than support. Albanese was linked to broad themes like health and education, though without specific recognition of his policies. Crucially, voters seemed to feel things were improving under Labor and saw no reason to change.

The campaign lacked emotional intensity. Many votes were cast against, rather than for, a candidate. Yet more Coalition voters cited Dutton as a positive reason for their vote than Labor voters did for Albanese—suggesting enthusiasm for the PM remains tepid. Strikingly, 40% of voters said they wanted a Coalition government, against 42% wanting Labor, even as 57% voted Labor two-party-preferred. This gap between preference and choice reflects a deeper ambivalence.

Voters remained tribal on issues like climate change, immigration, and defence, which mapped neatly onto party affiliations. But the overall result reflected high electoral volatility, not ideological realignment. Minor party votes hit record highs, and core support for both major parties appears soft. In many seats, factors like renewables (e.g. for the Teals) distorted the picture further.

In sum, the election was less a triumph for Labor than a repudiation of the Coalition’s offering. If this was a sliding doors moment, it opened not onto a clear new direction, but a foggy landscape where voters—disengaged yet decisive—chose caution over change.

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