Liberal leadership looks like two-horse race

Anyone notice that neither of these polls adds up to anywhere near 100%? That's because one puts Tony Abbott into the mix who garnered a respectable percentage of the vote, and then there were people who were undecided.

Nielsen's actual figures were 33% Hockey, 31% Turnbull and 21% Abbott. Newspoll had two sets of figures. Their first preferences were 24% Hockey, 32% Turnbull and 16% Abbott. But Newspoll then eliminated Abbott and asked voters how they would vote, which resulted in Abbott's support splitting almost evenly and a final result of Turnbull 39% and Hockey 31%.

If I was going to be pedantic I'd also insist that you eliminate the uncommitted factor and count the votes on the basis of those who expressed a preference. This would give Turnbul 56% of the Newspoll figure.

From this it appears that Turnbull's support is significantly eroding in the community, and if Abbott is a proxy for the right wing voter, both Hockey and Turnbull are gaining more or less even support from that quarter. This could make for an interesting Christmas season. Nothing like a two horse race to get political journalists interested, particularly when there is little else to write about.

I'll be interested to see what our poll comes up with.

Share this article on your favourite social bookmarking sites:
Digg! Reddit!! Google! Facebook! StumbleUpon! Twitter!


0 #21 CommentRichard 2009-10-15 10:15
What goes on with the liberal party, Turnbull etc,is largely irrelevant. What is relevant is that Rudd is laying the foudations for theworst ever govt this countryhas ever seen. He will make the N.S.W. govt look competent!!!!!! !!!!!!!!.His bullshit is the same as Carr's. Just wait,all will be clear very soon. Ask yourselves "Who is going to find/pay/borrow the $500 BILLION to bail out the totally bankrupt/insolv ent state of N.S.W. & ,TO build the needed infrastructure to resusitate it's choking economy.
0 #22 CommentRonald Kitching 2009-10-15 14:47
I do not favour Turnbull, Hockey nor Abbott. None of them have a classical Liberal bone in their bodies. They are all professional politicians who will do anything for a vote. Out of those on the horizon I favour Julie Bishop. but she too lacks any knowledge or expertise in the Classical Liberal tradition.The Liberal party needs to be rebuilt in true Classical Liberal traditions, a philosophy that is sadly missed in this Nation.
0 #23 Comment janice 2009-10-15 15:51
There is no potential credible opposition leader in sight at this time. They might as well keep Malcolm Turnbull and make an effort to put their petty schoolyard fights aside. After a couple more terms, some sound candidate selection and a lot of hard work formulating policies, a real leader will emerge.
0 #24 CommentJenny Sams 2009-10-15 17:31
There is no solution for a leader for the Liberals. Turnbull is a spent force, like a dead man walking, he has no control of his party. Hockey is lazy, a follower and not a leader, he is no solution at all. Abbott is not even in contention, he has too many times shown his true colours, he would be forever in the single digit category like Nelson was.Dutton is a goose with no guts, read Dickson bail out. Bishop does not handle matters very well, this is evident of how she sometimes get simple issues quite wrong.
0 #25 Commentpeter 2009-10-15 23:01
Questions like ‘who do you prefer definitely need an ‘irrelevant†™ or ‘none of the above’, option.

The problem we are seeing in the liberals at the moment is a symptom of a flawed system.

The two party, compulsory voting system makes for lazy, incompetent politicians. What is needed is the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) as adopted by New Zealand, with one additional tag, prohibiting coalition governments — which are nothing but attempts to cram it back into a two party system.

And do away with compulsory voting and the approximately $2 payment for each primary vote.

0 #26 CommentMichael 2009-10-16 03:54
And I had such high hopes that with Malcolm Turnbull either as PM or good ppositon Leader that the Republic debate would get a guernsey.
0 #27 CommentDavid 2009-10-16 14:20
The Liberals are a rabble. Simple as that. No effective policy statements,inte llectually inferior to the Government and still reeling from the stench of the Howard era. Count Rudd in for at least 3 terms.
0 #28 CommentSerge 2009-10-19 10:49
Turnbull could never make a good leader because all he craves is power. He has never elucidated any sort of vision for Australia nor does he seem to have any particular politically ideological conviction. Who knows what he believes in. I'm sure he would've been just as happy as leader of the Labor Party.