Turnbull wins virtual ballot

We ran a virtual ballot using full-preferential voting as part of our last survey weighted to reflect voting preferences in the community. It included Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop, Peter Dutton, Joe Hockey, and Peter Costello on the ballot and instructed voters to number all squares.

Turnbull scored 40% on primaries and Costello 29%.

First out was deputy Julie Bishop followed by Peter Dutton (both on 3%). Tony Abbott, who won 8% of the first preferences, went out next followed by Joe Hockey (17%). Preferences favoured Turnbull over Costello by a margin of approximately 5:3.

Interestingly, when a similar ballot was conducted using just Liberal Party voters ,Turnbull's margin decreased to 56%. A closer look at voting intentions showed that the main reason for this was that Costello was favoured over Turnbull by Liberal National Party voters.

Liberal National Party voters were also the least likely to vote for Peter Dutton, which may explain his loss in the MacPherson preselection recently.

The ballot confirms that as far as the public is concerned Turnbull is safe as Liberal Party leader. His only real competition was Peter Costello who is now definitely leaving parliament. 34% of those who gave Costello a first preference gave Turnbull their second preference.

Without Costello Turnbull should therefore have had a majority on first preferences alone.

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Comments   

 
0 #11 CommentPatricia Rayner 2009-12-15 00:19
You might not have liked Mr Turnbull but look what you have got now Minchin, Andrews, Bishop and Joyce as they say be careful of what you wish for!!
 
 
0 #12 CommentLynne 2009-12-15 04:06
Malcolm Turnbull deserved to lose the leadership. He wouldn't listen to his party collegues who were only relaying the concerns from the community. We don't know enough about the ETS.
Malcolm Turnbull is brillant but he has to learn to listen and remember he is supposed to represent the views of the people who voted for the coalition, not Kevin Rudd. Rudd has made a big enough mess on his own.
 
 
0 #13 CommentLynne 2009-12-15 04:08
Malcolm Turnbull deserved to lose the leadership. He wouldn't listen to his party collegues who were only relaying the concerns from the community. We don't know enough about the ETS.
Malcolm Turnbull is brillant but he has to learn to listen and remember he is supposed to represent the views of the people who voted for the coalition, not Kevin Rudd. Rudd has made a big enough mess on his own.
 
 
0 #14 CommentDes Young 2009-12-15 04:43

I loved the comment from Ronald Kitching who believes that Turnbull made two mistakes:


relying on his own strength instead of the help of God and
becoming a Roman Catholic which Ronald believes is a false religion. 
I wonder what religion he would have recommended to Turnbull instead. There is quite a choice.


I want to inform you Ronald, that Turnbull made only one mistake and as for the religion Ronald; they are all false.