Contest of leaders - qual

As the quants show the best result for the government would be Rudd against  Turnbull, but the best result for the opposition would be Turnbull against Gillard. The following Leximancer maps give some clues as to why this would be the case (click on each of the maps for an enlargement).

The status quo - Gillard versus Abbott

Omnibus_September_2011_Gillard_v_Abbott_Thumb

Strong supporters of Tony Abbott say that he is the "man" for the job. This is an interesting feature as it suggests an underlying gender alignment in the vote, but those raising issues of gender are not coming from the femnist position at this stage. This is not an overtly gender-related relationship, but rather implicit in the phrasing of their preference for Abbott. Leadership as a concept is more closely aligned with Abbott than with Gillard, but essentially this is not so much a positive vote for Abbott as rejection of Gillard. The presence of Malcolm Turnbull in the diagram indicates that if there was an alternative to Abbott voters would be much happier to take it, which is what the quantitative research says as well.

Rudd versus Abbott

Omnibus_September_2011_Rudd_v_Abbott_Thumb

This map continues the negative theme of the previous one. The best reason for voting for Kevin Rudd appears to be Tony Abbott, while the best reason for voting for Tony Abbott is Julia Gillard, and the second best reason Kevin Rudd. Those favouring Rudd see Labor as having failed, no matter which leader you choose, while Rudd supporters question Abbott for a lack of vision.

Rudd versus Turnbull

Omnibus_September_2011_Rudd_v_Turnbull_Thumb

In this contest voters see Turnbull as proven, and are negative on Rudd. He receives marks for his policies, and also for the fact that he is Labor. This last is often raised by respondents who like Turnbull, but are concerned that he is a Liberal, so is at best a back-handed compliment to Rudd.

Gillard versus Turnbull

Omnibus_September_2011_Gillard_v_Turnbull_Thumb

This is Labor's nightmare. Turnbull dominates this diagram from the centre. His strongest supporters still regard Gillard as the best reason to vote for him, perhaps because he is regarded by heart-land Liberals as being soft on climate change issues (this is the only map where "carbon" appears as a theme). The only strong reason for not voting for Turnbull is his party affiliation, and those who are voting for him see him as the best "choice" (about the only positive sentiment in all four scenarios) and able to do the "job". He is also trustworthy, and able to understand business.

 

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Comments   

 
0 #1 Should Turnbull replace Abbott as the leJolly 2011-11-01 21:41
Should Turnbull replace Abbott as the leader of the Liberals(Coalit ion) and stand at the next election, Labour will be thrashed with or without Rudd. What is holding back the Liberals is Abbott, ie Mr negative, Mr No, the Love-child of Howard-Bishop! Yaks! Liberals need to wake up and dump Abbott now.
 
 
0 #2 Just on your comment (1) is Abbott reallValda 2011-11-30 13:35
Just on your comment (1) is Abbott really the no, no, that we are told about. For instance, Gillard says that her government have passed 237 pieces of legislation in the lower house. It is beyond comprehension that the Coalition has voted 237 times against all legislation. I'd like to know what the Opposition has voted in favour of, and wonder if it is the MSM (or Labor) that suppresses this information. Give Abbott a go I say, and don't believe all you are told.
 
 
0 #3 Quite simply if Turnbull becomes leader Mike H 2011-11-30 16:27
Quite simply if Turnbull becomes leader I resign from the Liberal Party. What's the point of belonging to labor-lite.
 
 
0 #4 Valda : In my eyes and in the eyes of moOlder Fogey 2011-11-30 18:13
Valda : In my eyes and in the eyes of more than I can count..Tony Abbott IS Mr Negative. His continual and unabated negativity towards reforms that even Blind Freddy would recognise is the ball and chain around the neck of the LNP. Jolly Joe Hockey has proven himself on numerous ocassions to be an inept and bumbling clod when it comes to anything even remotely linked to the economy. I won't even mention the sad and sour relics of the Howard era that populate TA's front bench. The LNP needs a clean sweep and getting rid of Abbott, Both Bishops, Hockey whilst denouncing the hypocritical shock jocks Jones and Hadley. It is not so much the Labor Party needs to renew..it is the LNP, they have become so accustomed to being in power that when they are in Opposition they all collectively behave like spoilt brats.
 
 
0 #5 I am a conservative voter and always wilTrue Queenslander 2011-12-08 19:12
I am a conservative voter and always will be but I didn't like Howard, I don't like Abbott and I dislike Turnbull even more. The fact is that you can't vote on personalities, it's what's best for the country as a whole. As much as I hated Howard, he did pay off the countries debts, lets face it, it's the ONLY reason Swann has it so easy.