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Bill Shorten wins

As predicted by our polling Anthony Albanese won the support of the Labor Party rank and file. The figure was 60 per cent rather than the 76 per cent of Labor voters who told us they would vote for Albanese. Bill Shorten won because he received 63.9% of the caucus vote.

I'm not sure why our polling was much stronger for Albanese than the result. One possibility is that our sample leans harder to the left than the electorate, but if that was the explanation, then why would 74 per cent of Liberal voters have preferred Albanese. Even if we have mostly Liberal moderates (and I don't think we do), you would still expect a difference between them and the left-wing voters if political perspective was the deciding factor.

Another possibility is that our respondents do not mirror the political parties (even though many party members are on the panel). Perhaps Labor voters at large really are split in those percentages, but those in the machine are taking account of other factors and coming to a different conclusion.

The reason for doing our polling is to get a handle on what will happen in the future by talking to people who, whilst not experts, are interested in the area and spend time thinking about it. As we get close to average voters having to make a decision, the theory is that they tend to make similar decisions once they have to think about the issues.

What our figures are saying viewed thorugh this lens is that the Shorten leadership will not work. A year or so will show how prescient our respondents are.

Reachtel conducted a poll on the issue in NSW and Victoria and found Albanese's support in NSW was 63% amongst Labor voters, but only 46% in Victoria. While their figures in NSW appear close to the national mark, there overall figures weren't really close to the actual result either.

So, short of polling just ALP members, we weren't much worse, or better, than others.

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Comments   

 
+5 #1 RE: Bill Shorten winsSteve 2013-10-14 03:30
this whole fiasco shows Labor has not changed ...

still union dominated: 1 caucus vote = 350 party member votes

still faction-driven

still with no strategy for the general public to elect them as a government - Shorten doesn't have majority support from Labor party members
 
 
+2 #2 Shorto dominatesLoco Entero 2013-10-14 22:02
They have not learned anything! Labor continous to be same old, same old.
 
 
+1 #3 RE: Bill Shorten winsLorikeet 2013-12-17 05:15
I think it is true that the people wanted Anthony Albanese, but nobody seems to care very much what the Australian public has to say about ANYTHING.

I'm sure that Bill Shorten and Tanya Plibersek were chosen to lead the ALP long ago by the United Nations, which controls our parliament to a much greater degree than most people think.

We go through the motions but THEY make the choices. :zzz
 
 
-1 #4 RE: Bill Shorten winsHector 2013-12-18 17:47
I have watched Bill Shorten for some time ,first seeing him at a National press club Lunch. He came across as a breath of fresh air with no baggage very fair and very analytical Once he finds his feet I believe he will make a good leader.