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Greens leadership - quants

The Greens complete the trifecta both of major parties, and of parties where the parliamentary leader is not the favourite of the electorate at large. Unlike Labor the current leader, Christine Milne, is popular with Greens supporters, but unlike the Liberals where the leader is wildly popular with his party support base, her support is only just ahead of Adam Bandt amongst Greens supporters.

Greens Leadership 1

We tested three separate leadership hopefuls, and Sarah Hanson-Young scored least support. She had 15% across the board, and only 8% amongst Greens supporters. This compared with 54% and 40% for Bandt and 31% and 52% for Milne.

Milne gets an absolute majority from Greens supporters for first choice, however there is a significant opposition to her leadership. After first and second choice Milne has 80% of the vote compared to Bandt's 88%.

 

Greens Leadership 2If we eliminate the second preferences coming from each other's support base and just look at how those who nominated Hanson-Young as their first choice split their second preference, we find that 6 percentage points of her 8% went to Bandt, and only 2% to Milne.

Greens Leadership Hanson Young

Bearing in mind that we are polling electors at large, not party members, it is possible that a ballot could deliver the leadership to Bandt.

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Comments   

 
-2 #11 MrsPat Warnock 2013-12-17 22:26
Not surprising - should be seen with Bandt in media not those two women.
 
 
0 #12 clarification?Philip Machanick 2013-12-27 07:08
Could you clarify what the first two tables represent? Not so clear also what “After first and second choice Milne has 80% of the vote compared to Bandt's 88%.” means.
 
 
+1 #13 vaccination and climatePhilip Machanick 2013-12-27 07:15
Geoff, why is supporting vaccination so terrible? People who refuse to vaccinate their kids are guilty of child abuse and could spread harmful diseases that can and should be eliminated. The risk factors are grossly exaggerated, and mostly derive from one study that has since been shown to be fraudulent.

Lorikeet: no one claims we can control every nuance of climate. That is the problem: the only way we can change it is by a large-scale, multi-decadal intervention with a limited ability to predict the finer nuances of the effect. If we could control climate in detail, we could fix the problem easily. To put this into perspective, the amount of CO_2 industry has emitted for the last 2 centuries is on a scale that nature has in the past rarely added to the atmosphere in a single event, and even then, over tens of thousands of years: en.wikipedia.org/.../...
 
 
-2 #14 MrGeoff Thomas 2013-12-27 07:56
#13, Philip, your answer is the perfect reason that vaccination can be terrible, - without any idea of the arguments and statistics, (other than the MBA supported ones) you claim that people who refuse to vaccinate their kids are guilty of child abuse, a totally ridiculous claim but with vicious emotional blackmail and authoritarian posturing.
The anti vaccination arguments have a lot of merit, you obviously have no idea at all what they are but are prepared to classify those who disagree with your blind belief system as criminals, - and you want to force those who disagree to kill their children, - as they would see it, and they take their information from millions of surveys, not the bogus one you trot out.
Your attitude exemplifies why we should not support Christine Milne as she holds a bigoted viewpoint and wishes to ram it down innocent peoples throats, - as you also seem to want to do!!
 
 
+1 #15 RE: Greens leadership - quantsLorikeet 2013-12-27 08:46
Geoff Thomas, nearly 20 years ago I wrote letters to newspapers asking for children who weren't vaccinated to be denied access to child care centres. I did this because there were very tiny babies in care who were too young to be vaccinated against various illnesses. In recent times, there have been media reports of various disease outbreaks due to parents not immunising their children. Perhaps some people need to do some research into widespread epidemics which killed, maimed and permanently disabled innocent children.
 
 
0 #16 RE: Greens leadership - quantsLorikeet 2013-12-27 08:50
Philip Mackanick, no one can control the climate. I think it is highly arrogant for scientists to believe that they have some Godlike abilities in this area. It is my personal belief that the Carbon Religion is just another mechanism of global wealth redistribution. .. out of the western/develop ed nations and into the third world. This is why it is primarily supported by Communist type parties. ;-)
 
 
-1 #17 RE: Greens leadership - quantsGeoff Thomas 2013-12-27 23:45
In the last 20 years those children have been killed by the vaccines, and many others maimed for life, there is a wealth of discussion and debate on this topic
Also, "there have been media reports", - as you well should know by your age, media reports have only two requirements to exist, 1/- it is sensational so people will read it, 2/- it does not offend the multinational or whatever owns the newspaper.
The days when media reports could be used as evidence have long gone, if they ever existed,
Another side to this debate is one from a Doctor G Lancelot MD from Canada, who says "The Medical authorities keep lying, Vaccination has been a disaster on the immune system. It causes lots of illnesses. We are actually changing our genetic code through vaccination." - source - www.vaccinationinformationnetw ork.com/.../
Please remember that your opinion is not the Will of God, reality will be not black and white but Gray. Geoff.
 
 
+1 #18 RE: Greens leadership - quantsLorikeet 2013-12-28 05:09
I think it is more the case that when sick people are kept alive by modern medicine, they are likely to pass on inheritable conditions to their children, creating a weaker society.

However no one could successfully argue that immunisation has not very greatly decreased deaths and deformities from certain illnesses.
 
 
+1 #19 RE: Greens leadership - quantsLorikeet 2013-12-28 05:14
I think a greater villain is prescription medication which I do my best to avoid in favour of good food, exercise and a few health supplements.

I guess sometimes it is a matter of deciding which is the lesser of 2 evils, the disease or the cure/preventati ve measure.

This is certainly unpredictable in the case of some illnesses e.g. polio, in which one could be mildly ill, permanently deformed or completely dead.