Queensland Budget 2012

The first Newman budget was supposed to rule a line under the pain and point to the gain. We didn't manage to measure whether it did that, but we did measure the fact that the budget was marginally unpopular and had a measurably negative impact on voting intentions for the government.

This was largely a result of the slight lean to the left of our sample. When broken down by party allegiance the result was more nuanced.

 

Budget_Approve BKAP Grn ALP LNP Total
Strongly approve 9% 2% 0% 42% 18%
Approve 23% 3% 1% 52% 25%
Neither approve nor disapprove 18% 9% 6% 4% 7%
Disapprove 14% 28% 19% 1% 12%
Strongly disapprove 32% 59% 73% 1% 37%
Unsure 5% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Total approve 32% 5% 1% 94% 43%
Total disapprove 45% 86% 92% 2% 49%
Net approve -14% -81% -90% 92% -5%

 So it was Katter voters who made it marginally negative. Liberal and Labor voters were almost equally opposed.

Results were weaker for the government when the effect on voting intentions is taken into account. This is mostly a result of the fact that while Labor voters were heavily disposed against it, Liberal voters weren't as strongly supportive when it came to the issue of their vote. This is demonstrated in the table below where respondents were asked whether they were more or less likely to vote for the government as a result of the budget.

 

Vote_More_Likely BKAP Greens Labor LNP Total
Much more likely

5%

3%

0%

42%

18%

More likely

18%

0%

0%

26%

12%

Neither more nor less likely

27%

24%

8%

31%

22%

Less likely

18%

10%

9%

1%

7%

Much less likely

32%

62%

81%

1%

40%

Unsure

0%

0%

1%

0%

1%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Total more likely

23%

3%

0%

68%

30%

Total less likely

50%

72%

91%

1%

47%

Net more likely

-27%

-69%

-91%

67%

-17%

 So mild reservations about the budget from the LNP side, combined with some lack of enthusiasm from BKAP voters means at a voter level the budget worked against the government.

The qual shows the concerns that most voters have, which is generally not to do with any headline policy. LNP voters are concerned with the need to tame the debt and spending. ALP and Greens voters distrust the Costello audit report and focus on the sacking of public servants and the effect on the community, jobs and services.

Budget Approve Qld 12 09 13

When it comes to the effect on voting intention concerns are much more policy based. Mining taxes and royalties find a lot of support amongst Labor and Greens voters, even though they are less likely to vote for the government. Education and health as well as employment feature as we move into the centre, where the Katter voters are. In the LNP sector it again comes back to getting the size of government under control.

Budget Change Vote Qld 12 09 13

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