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Monday, 17 August 2009 02:34 |
Written by Graham Young
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Liberals give back all of their ground
According to our First Preference Indicator, over the last 10 months there has been virtually no net movement in the support for the parties. The index at September last year was set at 100 for each of Labor, Liberal and Greens. As of the period from the 29th July through to the 2nd August, the figures are Labor - 104; Liberal - 100; and Greens 106. The graph shows that this reverses the movements of our May poll when it appeared that the Liberal Party might be pulling the ALP back a little. These results are tending to shadow the movements in Newspoll and Neilsen, tending to verify that our qualitative polling is indicative of quantitative shifts in voting preference across the general community.
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Thursday, 30 July 2009 21:27 |
Written by Graham Young
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Our July Omnibus poll is live and can be accessed from http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=54818〈=en.
Apart from our usual questions about voting intentions, issues and leadership performance we are also looking at initial responses to the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission final report which could represent the biggest changes to medicine since Medibank.
We are also collaborating with the State Library of Victoria on a poll on reading and families with pre-school children. If you live in Victoria and have a pre-school child you can complete the survey at http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=91944〈=en.
The SLV survey will be open until midnight on Friday August 28, 2009 and everyone who enters will be eligible to be entered into a draw for $500 worth of children's books.
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Tuesday, 16 June 2009 02:53 |
Written by Graham Young
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Proposed and actual state government legislation to specifically criminalise particular bikie gangs and membership of them provides an interesting insight into the law and order debate.
The first table measures general concern about bikie gangs.
| Percentage concerned about bikie gangs |
| |
Greens |
Labor |
Liberal |
Total |
| Very concerned |
1% |
6% |
16% |
9% |
| Concerned |
11% |
22% |
33% |
25% |
| Neither concerned nor unconcerned |
24% |
28% |
20% |
24% |
| Unconcerned |
31% |
23% |
19% |
23% |
| Very unconcerned |
32% |
21% |
12% |
19% |
| Unsure |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
| Grand Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Total concerned |
13% |
27% |
49% |
34% |
| Total unconcerned |
64% |
44% |
32% |
42% |
| Net concerned |
-51% |
-17% |
17% |
-8% |
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Monday, 01 June 2009 16:20 |
Written by Graham Young
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While a little fewer people are worrying about the economy, many more worry about jobs now than they did 7 months ago, according to our research. In October last year 25.2% worried about the economy, and that has dropped by four percentage points to 21.1%.
However, seven months ago only 2.5% mentioned jobs as an important issue. That is now 11.9%, almost a five-fold increase. Together Jobs and Economy account for around 30% of responses, two-and-a-half times the number that mention Climate Change (change in the table) or Warming.
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Tuesday, 12 May 2009 18:21 |
Written by Graham Young
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Can Wayne Swan justify a $50B deficit? It's a meaningless question in isolation. If he spends it on things that the public wants, then it will be justified. According to our polling about the only thing that the treasurer ought to consider spending on is infrastructure. According to our poll 74% rate infrastructure as the first or second most important thing that government should do. The next most popular are spending on social services on an anaemic 37% and means testing welfare on 35%.
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Monday, 11 May 2009 19:11 |
Written by Graham Young
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According to the results of our May Omnibus poll, the Coalition is improving its vote, but its leader is less popular than ever.
On our First Preference Index, which seeks to measure the vote against a base of September 2008, Labor is at 98, which means slightly less popular than September last year, the Liberal Party is 120, substantially up, while the Greens are marginally up on 106.
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Wednesday, 06 May 2009 07:51 |
Written by Graham Young
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We've just posted our latest omnibus poll. It is at http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=83176〈=en.
We're looking at our usual political questions to see how the issues are changing, and checking attitudes to a few current issues.
We should start publishing parts of the research early next week.
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Monday, 23 March 2009 07:28 |
Written by Graham Young
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Every pollster, including us, was saying that Labor was in trouble in the Queensland election. The predicted swing was in the realm of 7 percent. From what you can tell, internal ALP research also seems to have supported this. In our last poll it appeared that the “undecideds” were breaking towards the LNP as well, and the LNP was well-placed on the issue of health, which was much more significant to voters than jobs, which was Labor’s issue.
So my prediction was that Labor would lose 12 to 15 seats. This was based on a uniform swing of around 6.6% to 8%.
In the event the Labor government may have lost 5 seats or less and has experienced a swing against it on primary votes of 4.36%. (I’m not counting seats here that were held by another party although notionally theirs). http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/changingseats.htm
Whatever movement occurred most probably happened in the last few days of the campaign. As there were no major policy announcements, or any blunders, in that period the change is most probably the result of a shift of mind by voters.
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Saturday, 21 March 2009 02:47 |
Written by Graham Young
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The purpose of any election campaign is to win votes. It doesn’t matter how many awards your ads win, or how the journalists score every day, if you don’t end up with more votes at the end of the campaign than you started with, then you have failed.
Queensland Labor has failed.
15% of our respondents claim to have changed their vote since the campaign began. Those who have favour the Liberal National Party by 54% to 46%. That means that while the government has won some voters, the LNP has won slightly more. Politics is all about percentages, so this is pretty good.
It confirms that if anything the swing has intensified.
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