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Wednesday, 21 October 2009 23:22 |
Written by Graham Young
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Is the National Party on to something? For the first time I have included their index calculation in our First Preference Indicator (FPI) graph below. The index has now been going for just over 12 months and it shows little real change in the Labor and Liberal votes in that time with the Greens up slightly. In contrast the National Party vote has been on a roller coaster - down dramatically in the middle of the year, and now up substantially on 12 months ago.
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Wednesday, 21 October 2009 23:21 |
Written by Graham Young
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Our quantitative analysis of Australian politics shows a few changes that might be significant. The National Party vote appears to be improving, and Malcolm Turnbull's disapproval rating has also improved.
Otherwise results are little different from 12 months ago.
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Tuesday, 20 October 2009 20:14 |
Written by Graham Young
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If they had a vote in the Liberal Parliamentary Party room Malcolm Turnbull would be the favoured choice of most Australians. Their second choice would be Peter Costello who resigned from parliament yesterday.
After preferences Turnbull would have won 59% of the vote.
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Wednesday, 14 October 2009 08:13 |
Written by Graham Young
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This morning's news was full of reports of a difference between Newspoll and AC Nielsen on who was the popularly preferred leader of the Liberal Party.
The SMH carries a story that Joe Hockey is "slightly favoured" over Malcolm Turnbull by 33% to 31%. The Australian suggests that the margin is firmer for Turnbull at 32% to 24%. One of these results is wrong, if not both, because the distance between them is larger than the sample error, but the reporting is wrong too.
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Tuesday, 01 September 2009 13:00 |
Written by Graham Young
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Online longitudinal studies, like the one we have been conducting since 2001 on Australian voting intentions, appear to be taking-off as a means of studying all sorts of things. The latest candidate is coronary artery disease. CLARIFY is a study that will involve 30,000 outpatients from 40 countries world-wide.
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Thursday, 27 August 2009 01:59 |
Written by Graham Young
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This survey came across my desk and I thought some of our readers would find it interesting .
It was undertaken by Warren Truss, Nationals Leader and member for Wide Bay. The sample size is 5,000, according to his media release.
It covers a lot of issues, but in the context of current debates I thought some more interesting than others. In particular the findings on attitudes to global warming and an ETS may well explain the National Party's recent decision to oppose any sort of ETS in the senate.
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Sunday, 23 August 2009 23:56 |
Written by Graham Young
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I have been asked a number of times by respondents to these surveys to explain how the Leximancer concept maps work. Leximancer is software developed at the University of Queensland to perform analysis of text. It identifies important words in a text using statistical analysis. It then codes the blocks of text in which the words occur.
This enables flexible and powerful classification of the sort of text that we gather in our surveys, and frequently shows-up relationships that would be difficult to spot using hand-coding techniques.
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Sunday, 23 August 2009 23:38 |
Written by Graham Young
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As the polling figures would suggest this is quite an uneven contest, but there are some interesting undercurrents that suggest to me that in an election context perceptions could change quickly. While Labor doesn't appear to be at any risk of losing the election, expectations of an improved performance compared to last election might be too optimistic.
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Monday, 17 August 2009 07:06 |
Written by Graham Young
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Fund health differently, but don't change it radically is the message from our polling on the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission's report.
We selected a number of propositions from the report and tested them, with the results in the table below. (This analysis is based on a sample of 783 respondents weighted so as to represent national voting intentions as per the latest Newspoll findings.)
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