Polls Blog
Exit poll federal election 2016
Tuesday, 26 July 2016 13:44 | Written by Graham Young

We've released two pieces of analysis on our exit poll.

The first is our standard analysis with the quantitative tables on the sample and the Leximancer maps. You can download that by clicking here.

It dovetails with our earlier research showing social issues and climate change being prime motivators for Labor and Greens voters, the economy and debt being prime motivators for Liberal and National supporters, and non-Greens minor party voters being concerned about the economy, but also cultural issues such as refugees, Islam, terrorism and gay marriage.

The second piece of analysis looks at the contribution that the issues of Medicare, superannuation and the economy made to the vote. This shows Medicare as being a small benefit to the Coalition, superannuation negative, but with a small subset of voters, and the economy positive for the Coalition.

These issues were more positive for the Coalition with non-Greens minor party voters, who held the key to the election.

You can download this second piece of research by clicking here.

However, as our analysis piece published in On Line Opinion today shows, Labor still got a good share of the minor party vote. The next term of parliament should be an arm wrestle over that vote, with whoever winning it forming the next government in 2015 of 2016.

You can read the analysis by clicking here.

 
Time ripe to raise taxes
Monday, 11 April 2016 17:37 | Written by Graham Young

There is a good argument to keep taxes as low as possible. It’s an argument that is losing ground in modern Australia.

 
Happy to pay more tax
Monday, 11 April 2016 17:12 | Written by Graham Young

Our report into Australian attitudes to taxation was launched today. The report can be downloaded by clicking here.

 
Turnbull was always on probation
Tuesday, 22 March 2016 10:06 | Written by Graham Young

Our latest research, conducted late last year, shows that Malcolm Turnbull has always been on probation. He held support from the right of the political spectrum, as they had nowhere to go, and attracted significant support from previous ALP voters, and even a substantial number of Greens voters.

 
Turnbull held aloft by projection and likeability
Tuesday, 22 March 2016 09:59 | Written by Graham Young

Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity seems a lot like Kevin Rudd’s on the basis of our polling. So will it disappear just as quickly and catastrophically for his own party?

 
Deep-seated attitudes to migration pose problems for new PM
Tuesday, 13 October 2015 07:57 | Written by Graham Young

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has inherited a nation deeply divided on issues around immigration, refugee policy and arrivals from Islamic countries, research by the Australian Institute for Progress has revealed.

 
New South Wales election: how the conversation went
Wednesday, 15 April 2015 06:47 | Written by Graham Young

It’s a truism that voters vote against the party they most dislike and for the party they least dislike. So our elections are grudge matches where the winner is only grudgingly approved. Or that’s the way it usually is.

 
New South Wales exit poll quants
Monday, 13 April 2015 21:06 | Written by Graham Young

On their own the quantitative results from the exit poll don't tell us a lot, but comparing them to the first set of results tells us how effective the campaigns were.

 
New South Wales 2015: qual
Thursday, 26 March 2015 14:19 | Written by Graham Young

 If the Liberal Party wins this state election they might owe as much of their success to Sydney traffic as they owe to Mike Baird's high approval rating.

 
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