Polls Blog
December polling - voting quants
Tuesday, 21 January 2014 16:24 | Written by Graham Young

One explanation for the drop in the Liberal vote and the increase in Labor vote, reported in our last post, is the standing of the leaders. At the last election Kevin Rudd was the most disliked prime minister since we began our polling. That seems to have made Tony Abbott look pretty good at the time. 

 
Government and opposition votes converging
Tuesday, 21 January 2014 15:11 | Written by Graham Young

According to our First Preference Index, Liberal and Labor votes are back to levels of support last seen in September/October 2010, which means you couldn't be sure who would win an election at the moment on a two-party preferred basis.

 
Greens leadership - quants
Monday, 14 October 2013 14:54 | Written by Graham Young

The Greens complete the trifecta both of major parties, and of parties where the parliamentary leader is not the favourite of the electorate at large. Unlike Labor the current leader, Christine Milne, is popular with Greens supporters, but unlike the Liberals where the leader is wildly popular with his party support base, her support is only just ahead of Adam Bandt amongst Greens supporters.

 
Liberal Party leadership - quants
Monday, 14 October 2013 10:37 | Written by Graham Young

While the ALP has a leader that the party and the electorate don't wants, the Liberal Party has a leader that the party, but not the electorate, wants. It's a better position to be in, but it's a long way from perfect.

 
Bill Shorten wins
Sunday, 13 October 2013 18:11 | Written by Graham Young

As predicted by our polling Anthony Albanese won the support of the Labor Party rank and file. The figure was 60 per cent rather than the 76 per cent of Labor voters who told us they would vote for Albanese. Bill Shorten won because he received 63.9% of the caucus vote.

 
Labor leadership - the qual
Thursday, 10 October 2013 11:43 | Written by Graham Young

Anthony Albanese is viewed as a genuine guy with little baggage and a lot of loyalty, and the capacity to be effective in government. Bill Shorten is viewed as a fixer and manipulator with malleable loyalties, and the capacity to be effective in government.

 
Labor leadership ballot - the quants
Thursday, 10 October 2013 11:17 | Written by Graham Young

Our poll on the Labor leadership has Anthony Albanese as the outright favourite against Bill Shorten. It also finds that the most popular leadership contender after Albanese out of Albanese, Shorten, Plibersek and Rudd is Tanya Plibersek.

 
Liberals lost campaign?
Monday, 07 October 2013 22:59 | Written by Graham Young

It seems counterintuitive given what I saw during the campaign, but the figures suggest that the Liberal Party lost the campaign with their vote at the start being much higher than their vote at the end. At least according to our first preference index.

 
Where we get our news part two
Sunday, 29 September 2013 21:18 | Written by Graham Young

So, the reason coalition supporters read newspapers is because they tend to be older, right? Well, that was my working hypothesis until I looked at the data. Turns out younger voters are big consumers of newspapers as well as social media and blogs.

 
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