Polls Blog
What we think of the leaders - December 2013 qual
Monday, 27 January 2014 11:10 | Written by Graham Young

We don't really think that much of either leader. While Abbott had some moments of relative popularity during the Gillard and Rudd governments, that was because they were even less popular than he is. Perhaps this loathing of political leaders is feeding into an irritation with the political system as a whole.

December 2013 - First Pref Qual
Monday, 27 January 2014 10:37 | Written by Graham Young

Voters at the margin (which is where all votes change and all elections are won) have changed their minds about Tony Abbott, but the reasons for voting for or against the government channel the last election. The winners want Abbott to clean-up the "mess", and the losers think he should be continuing the work of the previous government.

December polling - voting quants
Tuesday, 21 January 2014 16:24 | Written by Graham Young

One explanation for the drop in the Liberal vote and the increase in Labor vote, reported in our last post, is the standing of the leaders. At the last election Kevin Rudd was the most disliked prime minister since we began our polling. That seems to have made Tony Abbott look pretty good at the time. 

Government and opposition votes converging
Tuesday, 21 January 2014 15:11 | Written by Graham Young

According to our First Preference Index, Liberal and Labor votes are back to levels of support last seen in September/October 2010, which means you couldn't be sure who would win an election at the moment on a two-party preferred basis.

Greens leadership - quants
Monday, 14 October 2013 14:54 | Written by Graham Young

The Greens complete the trifecta both of major parties, and of parties where the parliamentary leader is not the favourite of the electorate at large. Unlike Labor the current leader, Christine Milne, is popular with Greens supporters, but unlike the Liberals where the leader is wildly popular with his party support base, her support is only just ahead of Adam Bandt amongst Greens supporters.

Liberal Party leadership - quants
Monday, 14 October 2013 10:37 | Written by Graham Young

While the ALP has a leader that the party and the electorate don't wants, the Liberal Party has a leader that the party, but not the electorate, wants. It's a better position to be in, but it's a long way from perfect.

Bill Shorten wins
Sunday, 13 October 2013 18:11 | Written by Graham Young

As predicted by our polling Anthony Albanese won the support of the Labor Party rank and file. The figure was 60 per cent rather than the 76 per cent of Labor voters who told us they would vote for Albanese. Bill Shorten won because he received 63.9% of the caucus vote.

Labor leadership - the qual
Thursday, 10 October 2013 11:43 | Written by Graham Young

Anthony Albanese is viewed as a genuine guy with little baggage and a lot of loyalty, and the capacity to be effective in government. Bill Shorten is viewed as a fixer and manipulator with malleable loyalties, and the capacity to be effective in government.

Labor leadership ballot - the quants
Thursday, 10 October 2013 11:17 | Written by Graham Young

Our poll on the Labor leadership has Anthony Albanese as the outright favourite against Bill Shorten. It also finds that the most popular leadership contender after Albanese out of Albanese, Shorten, Plibersek and Rudd is Tanya Plibersek.

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