Polls Blog
Queensland election 2015: the quants
Wednesday, 21 January 2015 22:58 | Written by Graham Young

Campbell Newman has his back against the wall with Labor currently close enough to take government on a uniform swing. This analysis is based on 603 responses from our qualitative panel.

 
Victorian election results
Wednesday, 31 December 2014 18:17 | Written by Graham Young

The first thing that should be said is that the Victorian election result was a confirmation that neither of the two major parties is held in high regard. Last election the Liberals scored 38% of the vote, this election it was Labor on 38%.

There was actually more enthusiasm for the Liberal leader, Denis Napthine, than for the Labor leader, according to Newspoll, with Napthine being favoured by 41% to 37%. This is within the statistical margin of error, and 22% were unable to say who they preferred, making it a very weak preference for either.

 
Leaders and the qual
Monday, 09 June 2014 18:03 | Written by Graham Young

The qualitative results on the approvals for Abbott and Shorten, as well as preferred prime minister undercut the results from the quants.

While the quants suggest Labor is doing much better than the Liberals, the qual suggests that Bill Shorten's position is not very strong and that the results on all three issues are governed by reactions for and against Tony Abbott.

 
May polling - the quants
Sunday, 25 May 2014 19:09 | Written by Graham Young

After weighting our sample for likely voting intentions there are some strong messages for both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Voters are actually not impressed with either - a continuation of the trend from the last parliament.

 
Budget bad for Libs, great for Greens, not so good for Labor
Sunday, 25 May 2014 18:37 | Written by Graham Young

FPI 14 05 15 ThumbOur First Preference Index - a measure of how voting intention moves in our unweighted sample - shows the Greens being big winners from the budget.

 
Budget sinks, but budget measures float, while government is seen as uncaring
Monday, 19 May 2014 08:17 | Written by Graham Young

As far as voters are concerned it would appear that this budget is worse than the sum of its parts.

Budget Approval Longitudinal 2014When asked about the budget in toto it is even less popular than Wayne Swan's "tough" 2012 budget. 57% disapprove of this budget compared to 50% who approved of his, although Swan's support at 35% was a little lower than Hockey's at 39%.

 
A Queensland election today would probably produce a hung parliament.
Sunday, 02 March 2014 21:11 | Written by Graham Young

According to the latest Galaxy Poll the Queensland government would receive 53% of the vote on a two-party preferred basis if an election were held now. This could be enough for them to scrape a bare win, or potentially face a hung parliament. This is because the electoral system incorporates around a 2.5% bias towards Labor, or at least it did before the last election.

 
What we think of the leaders - December 2013 qual
Monday, 27 January 2014 11:10 | Written by Graham Young

We don't really think that much of either leader. While Abbott had some moments of relative popularity during the Gillard and Rudd governments, that was because they were even less popular than he is. Perhaps this loathing of political leaders is feeding into an irritation with the political system as a whole.

 
December 2013 - First Pref Qual
Monday, 27 January 2014 10:37 | Written by Graham Young

Voters at the margin (which is where all votes change and all elections are won) have changed their minds about Tony Abbott, but the reasons for voting for or against the government channel the last election. The winners want Abbott to clean-up the "mess", and the losers think he should be continuing the work of the previous government.

 
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