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Polls Blog
Liberal Party leadership - quants
Monday, 14 October 2013 10:37 | Written by Graham Young

While the ALP has a leader that the party and the electorate don't wants, the Liberal Party has a leader that the party, but not the electorate, wants. It's a better position to be in, but it's a long way from perfect.

Bill Shorten wins
Sunday, 13 October 2013 18:11 | Written by Graham Young

As predicted by our polling Anthony Albanese won the support of the Labor Party rank and file. The figure was 60 per cent rather than the 76 per cent of Labor voters who told us they would vote for Albanese. Bill Shorten won because he received 63.9% of the caucus vote.

Labor leadership - the qual
Thursday, 10 October 2013 11:43 | Written by Graham Young

Anthony Albanese is viewed as a genuine guy with little baggage and a lot of loyalty, and the capacity to be effective in government. Bill Shorten is viewed as a fixer and manipulator with malleable loyalties, and the capacity to be effective in government.

Labor leadership ballot - the quants
Thursday, 10 October 2013 11:17 | Written by Graham Young

Our poll on the Labor leadership has Anthony Albanese as the outright favourite against Bill Shorten. It also finds that the most popular leadership contender after Albanese out of Albanese, Shorten, Plibersek and Rudd is Tanya Plibersek.

Liberals lost campaign?
Monday, 07 October 2013 22:59 | Written by Graham Young

It seems counterintuitive given what I saw during the campaign, but the figures suggest that the Liberal Party lost the campaign with their vote at the start being much higher than their vote at the end. At least according to our first preference index.

Where we get our news part two
Sunday, 29 September 2013 21:18 | Written by Graham Young

So, the reason coalition supporters read newspapers is because they tend to be older, right? Well, that was my working hypothesis until I looked at the data. Turns out younger voters are big consumers of newspapers as well as social media and blogs.

Where we get our news part one
Wednesday, 25 September 2013 12:01 | Written by Graham Young

Political campaigns and the media engage in giant feedback loops, particularly in the course of a campaign. Some media give you better access to certain demographics than others; some media are more critical than others; and whatever is in the media demands a response, even if that response is to do nothing, which influences what you do in your campaign.

Asylum-seeker issue now in mainstream
Thursday, 19 September 2013 12:27 | Written by Graham Young

This is the election that has mainstreamed the asylum seeker issue as more than an issue for the intellectual left and the working class right.

Libs ads best
Friday, 06 September 2013 07:31 | Written by Graham Young

With ads it is always a question of playing the odds. Some people like them, other people hate them, but on balance you may move a small percentage of voters. With elections won by movements of a couple of per cent, this is enough. In this contest, it appears that the coalition is ahead.

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