Polls Blog
New South Wales exit poll quants
Monday, 13 April 2015 21:06 | Written by Graham Young

On their own the quantitative results from the exit poll don't tell us a lot, but comparing them to the first set of results tells us how effective the campaigns were.

 
New South Wales 2015: qual
Thursday, 26 March 2015 14:19 | Written by Graham Young

 If the Liberal Party wins this state election they might owe as much of their success to Sydney traffic as they owe to Mike Baird's high approval rating.

 
New South Wales 2015: quants
Monday, 23 March 2015 22:25 | Written by Graham Young

The New South Wales election result looks like it will be much different from the Queensland one. This may be partly because voters have seen in Queensland that governments can lose large majorities in just one term.

 
Foley can undo Baird
Tuesday, 17 March 2015 17:27 | Written by Graham Young

The New South Wales coalition government is not impregnable. It may have won 64.2% of the two-party preferred vote at the last election, but that is not their real margin.

 
Why minor party voters preferenced against the LNP
Wednesday, 04 March 2015 15:07 | Written by Graham Young

What our quantitative polling told us was that the minor party preference vote was crucial to this election and it eventually settled with Labor. What I'm going to attempt to answer in this post is why that happened.

 
Minor parties went pop
Saturday, 28 February 2015 21:15 | Written by Graham Young

The success of Labor in wooing smaller party voters is quite marked in a longitudinal analysis of our Queensland election poll results.

While there was no statistically significant movement in voting intention across the entire sample, there was significant movement within the votes of those voting for minor parties or independents.

 
Why swingers voted in Queensland
Thursday, 12 February 2015 08:11 | Written by Graham Young

This analysis is based on the 24 respondents from our exit survey who identified as having changed their vote since last election, or who normally vote LNP but this time voted for the ALP. These were the voters who decided the election, so why they changed their vote is the best gauge of what really happened.

 
Newman needs to raise ALP Ghosts
Thursday, 29 January 2015 13:30 | Written by Graham Young

If Campbell Newman's campaign doesn't start focussing on the opposition and their previous record in government, then it may well hand Labor government on the back of antagonism from non-Greens minor party voters.

 
Queensland election 2015: the qual
Wednesday, 28 January 2015 17:10 | Written by Graham Young

 The qual shows that voters are not enthusiastic about either of the parties. When thinking of the LNP, their disappointment, and even anger, is directed at Campbell Newman. However, when thinking of the ALP, their focus is a bit more diffused. The Leximancer maps below plus verbatims tell the story.

 
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