Polls Blog
New South Wales 2015: quants
Monday, 23 March 2015 22:25 | Written by Graham Young

The New South Wales election result looks like it will be much different from the Queensland one. This may be partly because voters have seen in Queensland that governments can lose large majorities in just one term.

Foley can undo Baird
Tuesday, 17 March 2015 17:27 | Written by Graham Young

The New South Wales coalition government is not impregnable. It may have won 64.2% of the two-party preferred vote at the last election, but that is not their real margin.

Why minor party voters preferenced against the LNP
Wednesday, 04 March 2015 15:07 | Written by Graham Young

What our quantitative polling told us was that the minor party preference vote was crucial to this election and it eventually settled with Labor. What I'm going to attempt to answer in this post is why that happened.

Minor parties went pop
Saturday, 28 February 2015 21:15 | Written by Graham Young

The success of Labor in wooing smaller party voters is quite marked in a longitudinal analysis of our Queensland election poll results.

While there was no statistically significant movement in voting intention across the entire sample, there was significant movement within the votes of those voting for minor parties or independents.

Why swingers voted in Queensland
Thursday, 12 February 2015 08:11 | Written by Graham Young

This analysis is based on the 24 respondents from our exit survey who identified as having changed their vote since last election, or who normally vote LNP but this time voted for the ALP. These were the voters who decided the election, so why they changed their vote is the best gauge of what really happened.

Newman needs to raise ALP Ghosts
Thursday, 29 January 2015 13:30 | Written by Graham Young

If Campbell Newman's campaign doesn't start focussing on the opposition and their previous record in government, then it may well hand Labor government on the back of antagonism from non-Greens minor party voters.

Queensland election 2015: the qual
Wednesday, 28 January 2015 17:10 | Written by Graham Young

 The qual shows that voters are not enthusiastic about either of the parties. When thinking of the LNP, their disappointment, and even anger, is directed at Campbell Newman. However, when thinking of the ALP, their focus is a bit more diffused. The Leximancer maps below plus verbatims tell the story.

Queensland election 2015: the quants
Wednesday, 21 January 2015 22:58 | Written by Graham Young

Campbell Newman has his back against the wall with Labor currently close enough to take government on a uniform swing. This analysis is based on 603 responses from our qualitative panel.

Victorian election results
Wednesday, 31 December 2014 18:17 | Written by Graham Young

The first thing that should be said is that the Victorian election result was a confirmation that neither of the two major parties is held in high regard. Last election the Liberals scored 38% of the vote, this election it was Labor on 38%.

There was actually more enthusiasm for the Liberal leader, Denis Napthine, than for the Labor leader, according to Newspoll, with Napthine being favoured by 41% to 37%. This is within the statistical margin of error, and 22% were unable to say who they preferred, making it a very weak preference for either.

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