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Saturday, 26 March 2011 09:03 |
Written by Graham Young
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The result of the New South Wales election really will be "historic", but it will be almost a solo performance. NSW Labor can claim all the credit for their loss as the Liberals do little more than a Bradbury. This means that government after the election will be perilous for the winner. Bizarre as it may seem Kristina Keneally is right - the Liberals won't really have a mandate.
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Friday, 25 March 2011 20:49 |
Written by Graham Young
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It might be the announcement effect, but our polling, conducted over Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, shows Campbell Newman well-positioned to beat Anna Bligh if an election were held now.
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Tuesday, 15 March 2011 15:18 |
Written by Graham Young
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AUSTRALIA is unique. Nowhere else has climate change featured as a big issue in national elections in the way it has here.
In 2007, it was an important plank in Labor's push for election, driven by the fear of electors on the east coast that they might run out of water. It allowed Labor to frame John Howard as yesterday's man, out of touch with the problems of the day.
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Monday, 31 January 2011 16:14 |
Written by Graham Young
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There were two clear winners out of the Queensland floods in terms of their reputation with the public. They were Anna Bligh and your local mayor.
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Monday, 31 January 2011 06:43 |
Written by Graham Young
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ANNA Bligh has been praised for her handling of the floods but it won't help her at the next poll.
IT'S an ill wind that blows no one any good, and the winds that brought the rain and devastation to Queensland are no exception. While they left many homeless, they may have done some good for Premier Anna Bligh.
Her handling of the flood crisis has widely been hailed as inspirational with commentators suggesting it gives her a chance of retaining her grip on parliament.
But how good a chance is it?
The latest quarterly Newspoll has Queensland Labor on a primary vote of 26 per cent and the Liberal National Party on 45 per cent, yielding a two-party preferred result of 59 per cent to 41 per cent. Only 24 per cent approve of Bligh as premier.
If it carried over into the next election Labor would go close to equalling its worst-ever result of 1974 when it was reduced to only 11 members: a prospect The Courier-Mail calls "Annageddon"ANNA Bligh has been praised for her handling of the floods but it won't help her at the next poll.
IT'S an ill wind that blows no one any good, and the winds that brought the rain and devastation to Queensland are no exception. While they left many homeless, they may have done some good for Premier Anna Bligh.
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Wednesday, 22 December 2010 22:09 |
Written by Graham Young
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It seems that Wikileaks is widely and wildly popular in Australia. Taking a sample of respondents adjusted for voting intention 65 percent approved of the organisation and only 18 percent disapproved, with a net positive in every major voting bloc. However, there were wrinkles, with less than 50 percent of Liberal and National voters approving. Approval was also around 5 points less strong for the release of the US diplomatic cables and disapproval 7 percentage points higher.
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Sunday, 28 November 2010 14:49 |
Written by Graham Young
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Victorian voters are unhappy with their politicians. This was an election of quiet desperation where Labor lost the election rather than the Liberals winning it (if indeed they have). While Labor has a lot to make up to voters, the Liberals will be lucky to get a honeymoon.
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Saturday, 27 November 2010 18:42 |
Written by Graham Young
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Public Transport and Law and Order appear to have been the two most important issues to Liberal voters, and as the Liberals seem to have won, the deciding issues. I have been watching the ABC coverage as I write this and it makes it even clearer why public transport was an important issue.
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Wednesday, 24 November 2010 22:34 |
Written by Graham Young
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Our quants tend to line up with the telephone polling that Nielsen, Morgan and Newspoll have been publishing. Not that the absolute numbers fall in line, but the theoretical movement since the last election is similar.We had 282 responses, which is a little small for me to do the same manipulations that I do with larger samples, so I've generally treated this one as three separate focus groups with each of Labor, Liberal and Greens voters.
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